Next 24 hours — model comparison3 models · 24-hour peak table
Model
Peak PM2.5
Peak around
HRRR-Smoke (NOAA, 3 km)
1 µg/m³
Oct 15, 12:00PM
FireWork (ECCC)
11 µg/m³
Oct 15, 1:00AM
FireSmoke (UBC BlueSky)
2 µg/m³
Oct 15, 12:00PM
Model values are for the nearest forecast grid cell to The Dalles;
FireSmoke, FireWork and HRRR are independent and often disagree — treat the highest available value
as the cautious planning number.
Observations and NowCast are total PM2.5 — wildfire smoke plus every other source — as regulatory monitors measure it, and FireWork models that same total. FireSmoke and HRRR-Smoke estimate the wildfire contribution only, so they read lower than the monitors whenever other sources matter. The optional map plume surfaces are likewise fires-only.
Sky vs. ground
Little smoke at the surface or overhead.
Sky right now
Clear sky
● At the ground
· ● Overhead (if mixed down)
Overhead smoke dims the sun but is not what you breathe. The dashed line shows the surface level if the whole column mixed through the boundary layer — a worst case, not a forecast · Data: NOAA HRRR-Smoke; cloud cover is from the model, not observed
Nearby fires
100 mi radius
Within 100 mi, agencies report 1 Not contained · 20 Mostly contained (70%+) · 2 Other.
Not contained1 fire
WEST FORK
97 mi away · 310 acres · 16% contained · reported 2026-10-03 · WA
distance measured to the incident point
Not contained
Partially contained0 fires
No partially contained fires are reported in this state.
Mostly contained (70%+)20 fires
GRASSHOPPER
29 mi away · 93,972 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-15 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0432
46 mi away · 2,183 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
HIGH LAVA
49 mi away · 2,899 acres · 95% contained · reported 2026-10-08 · WA
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0485 DEEP CANYON
53 mi away · 9,170 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
THE NARROWS
54 mi away · 305 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
AUSTIN
54 mi away · 12,888 acres · 98% contained · reported 2026-10-15 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0450 COVE CREEK
61 mi away · 7,208 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
Bench
67 mi away · 67,071 acres · 90% contained · reported 2026-10-14 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0502
68 mi away · 1,816 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
ROWE CREEK COMPLEX
69 mi away · 373,928 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0433 BREWER
71 mi away · 70,821 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0445 CROSSWHITE
73 mi away · 342,923 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0501 PAT'S CABIN
73 mi away · 772 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0512 BOX SPRINGS
74 mi away · 21,432 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0442 REDROCK
75 mi away · 256 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0444 TWICKENHAM
76 mi away · 254 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0446 CAMEL HUMP
80 mi away · 6,789 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0611 GREEN MOUNTAIN
83 mi away · 2,136 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
0489 PARRISH
88 mi away · 404 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-02 · OR
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
SECOND STREET
94 mi away · 1,149 acres · 100% contained · reported 2026-10-13 · WA
distance measured to the incident point
Mostly contained (70%+)
Other status2 fires
MCKINLEY
83 mi away · 0 acres · reported 2026-10-14 · WA
distance measured to the incident point
Containment not reported
BUMPING LAKE
88 mi away · 0 acres · reported 2026-10-12 · WA
distance measured to the incident point
Containment not reported
Proximity and wind direction do not prove that a fire caused smoke at this location. Source: National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC); incident points and containment as reported by the responsible agencies.
Forecast track record here
29-day record · 4 nearby monitors
Model
Typical error
Tendency
FireWork
2.6 µg/m³
reads high 1.0
HRRR-Smoke
3.5 µg/m³
reads low 3.5
FireSmoke
10.6 µg/m³
reads high 4.6
Mean absolute error and average tendency in µg/m³, from forecasts verified 0–6 hours ahead at monitors within 50 km. A short-range record, not a measure of how far ahead a model stays reliable. FireSmoke and HRRR model wildfire smoke only, so they read below the monitors whenever other sources of PM2.5 matter.